Disturbance, response, and persistence in self-organized forested communities: Analysis of robustness and resilience in five communities in Southern Indiana

We develop an analytic framework for the analysis of robustness in social-ecological systems (SESs) over time. We argue that social robustness is affected by the disturbances that communities face and the way they respond to them. Using Ostrom's ontological framework for SESs, we classify the major factors influencing the disturbances and responses faced by five Indiana intentional communities over a 15-year time frame. Our empirical results indicate that operational and collective-choice rules, leadership and entrepreneurship, monitoring and sanctioning, economic values, number of users, and norms/social capital are key variables that need to be at the core of future theoretical work on robustness of self-organized systems. © 2010 by the author(s).

Probabilistic Fréchet means for time varying persistence diagrams

© 2015, Institute of Mathematical Statistics. All rights reserved.In order to use persistence diagrams as a true statistical tool, it would be very useful to have a good notion of mean and variance for a set of diagrams. In [23], Mileyko and his collaborators made the first study of the properties of the Fréchet mean in (Dp, Wp), the space of persistence diagrams equipped with the p-th Wasserstein metric. In particular, they showed that the Fréchet mean of a finite set of diagrams always exists, but is not necessarily unique. The means of a continuously-varying set of diagrams do not themselves (necessarily) vary continuously, which presents obvious problems when trying to extend the Fréchet mean definition to the realm of time-varying persistence diagrams, better known as vineyards. We fix this problem by altering the original definition of Fréchet mean so that it now becomes a probability measure on the set of persistence diagrams; in a nutshell, the mean of a set of diagrams will be a weighted sum of atomic measures, where each atom is itself a persistence diagram determined using a perturbation of the input diagrams. This definition gives for each N a map (Dp)^N→ℙ(Dp). We show that this map is Hölder continuous on finite diagrams and thus can be used to build a useful statistic on vineyards.

Knowledge and judgments about events that occurred prior to birth: The measurement of the persistence of information

Data from five laboratories using five different techniques were reanalyzed to measure subjects' knowledge of events that occurred over the past 70 years. Subjects were about 20 years of age, so the measures included events that extended up to 50 years before birth. The functions relating knowledge about the events to age do not decrease precipitously at birth but gradually drop to above-chance levels. Techniques usually used to study retention within the individual can be used to study the persistence of ideas and fashions within an age cohort in a culture.

Exploring the effects of image persistence in low frame rate virtual environments

© 2015 IEEE.In virtual reality applications, there is an aim to provide real time graphics which run at high refresh rates. However, there are many situations in which this is not possible due to simulation or rendering issues. When running at low frame rates, several aspects of the user experience are affected. For example, each frame is displayed for an extended period of time, causing a high persistence image artifact. The effect of this artifact is that movement may lose continuity, and the image jumps from one frame to another. In this paper, we discuss our initial exploration of the effects of high persistence frames caused by low refresh rates and compare it to high frame rates and to a technique we developed to mitigate the effects of low frame rates. In this technique, the low frame rate simulation images are displayed with low persistence by blanking out the display during the extra time such image would be displayed. In order to isolate the visual effects, we constructed a simulator for low and high persistence displays that does not affect input latency. A controlled user study comparing the three conditions for the tasks of 3D selection and navigation was conducted. Results indicate that the low persistence display technique may not negatively impact user experience or performance as compared to the high persistence case. Directions for future work on the use of low persistence displays for low frame rate situations are discussed.

Institutional Persistence in Eastern Europe: Economic and Political Legacies of Empires and Communism

This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of the roles that institutions play in economic development. How do institutions evolve? What mechanisms are responsible for their persistence? What effects do they have on economic development?

I address these questions using historical and contemporary data from Eastern Europe and Russia. This area is relatively understudied by development economists. It also has a very interesting history. For one thing, for several centuries it was divided between different empires. For another, it experienced wars and socialism in the 20th century. I use some of these exogenous shocks as quasi-natural social experiments to study the institutional transformations and its effects on economic development both in the short and long run.

This first chapter explores whether economic, social, and political institutions vary in their resistance to policies designed to remove them. The empirical context for the analysis is Romania from 1690 to the 2000s. Romania represents an excellent laboratory for studying the persistence of different types of historical institutional legacies. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Romania was split between the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires, where political and economic institutions differed. The Habsburgs imposed less extractive institutions relative to the Ottomans: stronger rule of law, a more stable and predictable state, a more developed civil society, and less corruption. In the 20th century, the Romanian Communist regime tried deliberately to homogenize the country along all relevant dimensions. It was only partially successful. Using a regression discontinuity design, I document the persistence of economic outcomes, social capital, and political attitudes. First, I document remarkable convergence in urbanization, education, unemployment, and income between the two former empires. Second, regarding social capital, no significant differences in organizational membership, trust in bureaucracy, and corruption persist today. Finally, even though the Communists tried to change all political attitudes, significant discontinuities exist in current voting behavior at the former Habsburg-Ottoman border. Using data from the parliamentary elections of 1996-2008, I find that former Habsburg rule decreases by around 6 percentage points the vote share of the major post-Communist left party and increases by around 2 and 5 percentage points the vote shares of the main anti-Communist and liberal parties, respectively.

The second chapter investigates the effects of Stalin’s mass deportations on distrust in central authority. Four deported ethnic groups were not rehabilitated after Stalin’s death; they remained in permanent exile until the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This allows one to distinguish between the effects of the groups that returned to their homelands and those of the groups that were not allowed to return. Using regional data from the 1991 referendum on the future of the Soviet Union, I find that deportations have a negative interim effect on trust in central authority in both the regions of destination and those of origin. The effect is stronger for ethnic groups that remained in permanent exile in the destination regions. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, the chapter also documents a long-term effect of deportations in the destination regions.

The third chapter studies the short-term effect of Russian colonization of Central Asia on economic development. I use data on the regions of origin of Russian settlers and push factors to construct an instrument for Russian migration to Central Asia. This instrument allows me to interpret the outcomes causally. The main finding is that the massive influx of Russians into the region during the 1897-1926 period had a significant positive effect on indigenous literacy. The effect is stronger for men and in rural areas. Evidently, interactions between natives and Russians through the paid labor market was an important mechanism of human capital transmission in the context of colonization.

The findings of these chapters provide additional evidence that history and institutions do matter for economic development. Moreover, the dissertation also illuminates the relative persistence of institutions. In particular, political and social capital legacies of institutions might outlast economic legacies. I find that most economic differences between the former empires in Romania have disappeared. By the same token, there are significant discontinuities in political outcomes. People in former Habsburg Romania provide greater support for liberalization, privatization, and market economy, whereas voters in Ottoman Romania vote more for redistribution and government control over the economy.

In the former Soviet Union, Stalin’s deportations during World War II have a long-term negative effect on social capital. Today’s residents of the destination regions of deportations show significantly lower levels of trust in central authority. This is despite the fact that the Communist regime tried to eliminate any source of opposition and used propaganda to homogenize people’s political and social attitudes towards the authorities. In Central Asia, the influx of Russian settlers had a positive short-term effect on human capital of indigenous population by the 1920s, which also might have persisted over time.

From a development perspective, these findings stress the importance of institutions for future paths of development. Even if past institutional differences are not apparent for a certain period of time, as was the case with the former Communist countries, they can polarize society later on, hampering economic development in the long run. Different institutions in the past, which do not exist anymore, can thus contribute to current political instability and animosity.

Confidence intervals for half-life deviations from purchasing power parity

Existing point estimates of half-life deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP), around 3-5 years, suggest that the speed of convergence is extremely slow. This article assesses the degree of uncertainty around these point estimates by using local-to-unity asymptotic theory to construct confidence intervals that are robust to high persistence in small samples. The empirical evidence suggests that the lower bound of the confidence interval is between four and eight quarters for most currencies, which is not inconsistent with traditional price-stickiness explanations. However, the upper bounds are infinity for all currencies, so we cannot provide conclusive evidence in favor of PPP either. © 2005 American Statistical Association.

Comparison of pattern detection methods in microarray time series of the segmentation clock.

While genome-wide gene expression data are generated at an increasing rate, the repertoire of approaches for pattern discovery in these data is still limited. Identifying subtle patterns of interest in large amounts of data (tens of thousands of profiles) associated with a certain level of noise remains a challenge. A microarray time series was recently generated to study the transcriptional program of the mouse segmentation clock, a biological oscillator associated with the periodic formation of the segments of the body axis. A method related to Fourier analysis, the Lomb-Scargle periodogram, was used to detect periodic profiles in the dataset, leading to the identification of a novel set of cyclic genes associated with the segmentation clock. Here, we applied to the same microarray time series dataset four distinct mathematical methods to identify significant patterns in gene expression profiles. These methods are called: Phase consistency, Address reduction, Cyclohedron test and Stable persistence, and are based on different conceptual frameworks that are either hypothesis- or data-driven. Some of the methods, unlike Fourier transforms, are not dependent on the assumption of periodicity of the pattern of interest. Remarkably, these methods identified blindly the expression profiles of known cyclic genes as the most significant patterns in the dataset. Many candidate genes predicted by more than one approach appeared to be true positive cyclic genes and will be of particular interest for future research. In addition, these methods predicted novel candidate cyclic genes that were consistent with previous biological knowledge and experimental validation in mouse embryos. Our results demonstrate the utility of these novel pattern detection strategies, notably for detection of periodic profiles, and suggest that combining several distinct mathematical approaches to analyze microarray datasets is a valuable strategy for identifying genes that exhibit novel, interesting transcriptional patterns.

Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.

Discharge competence and pattern formation in peatlands: a meta-ecosystem model of the Everglades ridge-slough landscape.

Regular landscape patterning arises from spatially-dependent feedbacks, and can undergo catastrophic loss in response to changing landscape drivers. The central Everglades (Florida, USA) historically exhibited regular, linear, flow-parallel orientation of high-elevation sawgrass ridges and low-elevation sloughs that has degraded due to hydrologic modification. In this study, we use a meta-ecosystem approach to model a mechanism for the establishment, persistence, and loss of this landscape. The discharge competence (or self-organizing canal) hypothesis assumes non-linear relationships between peat accretion and water depth, and describes flow-dependent feedbacks of microtopography on water depth. Closed-form model solutions demonstrate that 1) this mechanism can produce spontaneous divergence of local elevation; 2) divergent and homogenous states can exhibit global bi-stability; and 3) feedbacks that produce divergence act anisotropically. Thus, discharge competence and non-linear peat accretion dynamics may explain the establishment, persistence, and loss of landscape pattern, even in the absence of other spatial feedbacks. Our model provides specific, testable predictions that may allow discrimination between the self-organizing canal hypotheses and competing explanations. The potential for global bi-stability suggested by our model suggests that hydrologic restoration may not re-initiate spontaneous pattern establishment, particularly where distinct soil elevation modes have been lost. As a result, we recommend that management efforts should prioritize maintenance of historic hydroperiods in areas of conserved pattern over restoration of hydrologic regimes in degraded regions. This study illustrates the value of simple meta-ecosystem models for investigation of spatial processes.

Facts and Fictions: Feminist Literary Criticism and Cultural Critique, 1968-2012

"Facts and Fictions: Feminist Literary Criticism and Cultural Critique, 1968-2012" is a critical history of the unfolding of feminist literary study in the US academy. It contributes to current scholarly efforts to revisit the 1970s by reconsidering often-repeated narratives about the critical naivety of feminist literary criticism in its initial articulation. As the story now goes, many of the most prominent feminist thinkers of the period engaged in unsophisticated literary analysis by conflating lived social reality with textual representation when they read works of literature as documentary evidence of real life. As a result, the work of these "bad critics," particularly Kate Millett and Andrea Dworkin, has not been fully accounted for in literary critical terms.

This dissertation returns to Dworkin and Millett's work to argue for a different history of feminist literary criticism. Rather than dismiss their work for its conflation of fact and fiction, I pay attention to the complexity at the heart of it, yielding a new perspective on the history and persistence of the struggle to use literary texts for feminist political ends. Dworkin and Millett established the centrality of reality and representation to the feminist canon debates of "the long 1970s," the sex wars of the 1980s, and the more recent feminist turn to memoir. I read these productive periods in feminist literary criticism from 1968 to 2012 through their varied commitment to literary works.

Chapter One begins with Millett, who de-aestheticized male-authored texts to treat patriarchal literature in relation to culture and ideology. Her mode of literary interpretation was so far afield from the established methods of New Criticism that she was not understood as a literary critic. She was repudiated in the feminist literary criticism that followed her and sought sympathetic methods for reading women's writing. In that decade, the subject of Chapter Two, feminist literary critics began to judge texts on the basis of their ability to accurately depict the reality of women's experiences.

Their vision of the relationship between life and fiction shaped arguments about pornography during the sex wars of the 1980s, the subject of Chapter Three. In this context, Dworkin was feminism's "bad critic." I focus on the literary critical elements of Dworkin's theories of pornographic representation and align her with Millett as a miscategorized literary critic. In the decades following the sex wars, many of the key feminist literary critics of the founding generation (including Dworkin, Jane Gallop, Carolyn Heilbrun, and Millett) wrote memoirs that recounted, largely in experiential terms, the history this dissertation examines. Chapter Four considers the story these memoirists told about the rise and fall of feminist literary criticism. I close with an epilogue on the place of literature in a feminist critical enterprise that has shifted toward privileging theory.

The Ontogeny of Mucosal and Systemic Antibody Responses to HIV-1 Infection

The humoral immune system plays a critical role in the clearance of numerous pathogens. In the setting of HIV-1 infection, the virus infects, integrates its genome into the host's cells, replicates, and establishes a reservoir of virus-infected cells. The initial antibody response to HIV-1 infection is targeted to non-neutralizing epitopes on HIV-1 Env gp41, and when a neutralizing response does develop months after transmission, it is specific for the autologous founder virus and the virus escapes rapidly. After continuous waves of antibody mediated neutralization and viral escape, a small subset of infected individuals eventually develop broad and potent heterologous neutralizing antibodies years after infection. In this dissertation, I have studied the ontogeny of mucosal and systemic antibody responses to HIV-1 infection by means of three distinct aims: 1. Determine the origin of the initial antibody response to HIV-1 infection. 2. Characterize the role of restricted VH and VL gene segment usage in shaping the antibody response to HIV-1 infection. 3. Determine the role of persistence of B cell clonal lineages in shaping the mutation frequencies of HIV-1 reactive antibodies.

After the introduction (Chapter 1) and methods (Chapter 2), Chapter 3 of this dissertation describes a study of the antibody response of terminal ileum B cells to HIV-1 envelope (Env) in early and chronic HIV-1 infection and provides evidence for the role of environmental antigens in shaping the repertoire of B cells that respond to HIV-1 infection. Previous work by Liao et al. demonstrated that the initial plasma cell response in the blood to acute HIV-1 infection is to gp41 and is derived from a polyreactive memory B cell pool. Many of these antibodies cross-reacted with commensal bacteria, Therefore, in Chapter 3, the relationship of intestinal B cell reactivity with commensal bacteria to HIV-1 infection-induced antibody response was probed using single B cell sorting, reverse transcription and nested polymerase chain reaction (RT- PCR) methods, and recombinant antibody technology. The dominant B cell response in the terminal ileum was to HIV-1 envelope (Env) gp41, and 82% of gp41- reactive antibodies cross-reacted with commensal bacteria whole cell lysates. Pyrosequencing of blood B cells revealed HIV-1 antibody clonal lineages shared between ileum and blood. Mutated IgG antibodies cross-reactive with both Env gp41 and commensal bacteria could also be isolated from the terminal ileum of HIV-1 uninfected individuals. Thus, the antibody response to HIV-1 can be shaped by intestinal B cells stimulated by commensal bacteria prior to HIV-1 infection to develop a pre-infection pool of memory B cells cross-reactive with HIV-1 gp41.

Chapter 4 details the study of restricted VH and VL gene segment usage for gp41 and gp120 antibody induction following acute HIV-1 infection; mutations in gp41 lead to virus enhanced neutralization sensitivity. The B cell repertoire of antibodies induced in a HIV-1 infected African individual, CAP206, who developed broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) directed to the HIV-1 envelope gp41 membrane proximal external region (MPER), is characterized. Understanding the selection of virus mutants by neutralizing antibodies is critical to understanding the role of antibodies in control of HIV-1 replication and prevention from HIV-1 infection. Previously, an MPER neutralizing antibody, CAP206-CH12, with the binding footprint identical to that of MPER broadly neutralizing antibody 4E10, that like 4E10 utilized the VH1-69 and VK3-20 variable gene segments was isolated from this individual (Morris et al., 2011). Using single B cell sorting, RT- PCR methods, and recombinant antibody technology, Chapter 4 describes the isolation of a VH1-69, Vk3-20 glycan-dependent clonal lineage from CAP206, targeted to gp120, that has the property of neutralizing a neutralization sensitive CAP206 transmitted/founder (T/F) and heterologous viruses with mutations at amino acids 680 or 681 in the MPER 4E10/CH12 binding site. These data demonstrate sites within the MPER bnAb epitope (aa 680-681) in which mutations can be selected that lead to viruses with enhanced sensitivity to autologous and heterologous neutralizing antibodies.

In Chapter 5, I have completed a comparison of evolution of B cell clonal lineages in two HIV-1 infected individuals who have a predominant VH1-69 response to HIV-1 infection--one who produces broadly neutralizing MPER-reactive mAbs and one who does not. Autologous neutralization in the plasma takes ~12 weeks to develop (Gray et al., 2007; Tomaras et al., 2008b). Only a small subset of HIV-1 infected individuals develops high plasma levels of broad and potent heterologous neutralization, and when it does occur, it typically takes 3-4 years to develop (Euler et al., 2010; Gray et al., 2007; 2011; Tomaras et al., 2011). The HIV-1 bnAbs that have been isolated to date have a number of unusual characteristics including, autoreactivity and high levels of somatic hypermutations, which are typically tightly regulated by immune control mechanisms (Haynes et al., 2005; 2012b; Kwong and Mascola, 2012; Scheid et al., 2009a). The VH mutation frequencies of bnAbs average ~15% but have been shown to be as high as 32% (reviewed in Mascola and Haynes, 2013; Kwong and Mascola, 2012). The high frequency of somatic hypermutations suggests that the B cell clonal lineages that eventually produce bnAbs undergo high-levels of affinity maturation, implying prolonged germinal center (GC) reactions and high levels of T cell help. To study the duration of HIV-1- reactive B cell clonal persistence, HIV-1 reactive and non HIV-1- reactive B cell clonal lineages were isolated from an HIV-1 infected individual that produces bnAbs, CAP206, and an HIV-1 infected individual who does not produce bnAbs, 004-0. Single B cell sorting, RT-PCR and recombinant antibody technology was used to isolate and produce monoclonal antibodies from multiple time points from each individual. B cell sequences clonally related to mAbs isolated by single cell PCR were identified within pyrosequences of longitudinal samples of these two individuals. Both individuals produced long-lived B cell clones that persisted from 0-232 weeks in CAP206, and 0-238 weeks in 004-0. The average length of persistence of clones containing members isolated from two separate time points was 91.5 weeks both individuals. Examples of the continued evolution of clonal lineages were observed in both the bnAb and non-bnAb individual. These data indicated that the ability to generate persistent and evolving B cell clonal lineages occurs in both bnAb and non-bnAb individuals, suggesting that some alternative host or viral factor is critical for the generation of highly mutated broadly neutralizing antibodies.

Together the studies described in Chapter 3-5 show that multiple factors influence the antibody response to HIV-1 infection. The initial antibody response to HIV-1 Env gp41 can be shaped by a B cell response to intestinal commensal bacteria prior to HIV-1 infection. VH and VL gene segment restriction can impact the B cell response to multiple HIV-1 antigens, and virus escape mutations in the MPER can confer enhanced neutralization sensitivity to autologous and heterologous antibodies. Finally, the ability to generate long-lived HIV-1 clonal lineages in and of itself does not confer on the host the ability to produce bnAbs.

Is chronic asthma associated with shorter leukocyte telomere length at midlife?

RATIONALE: Asthma is prospectively associated with age-related chronic diseases and mortality, suggesting the hypothesis that asthma may relate to a general, multisystem phenotype of accelerated aging. OBJECTIVES: To test whether chronic asthma is associated with a proposed biomarker of accelerated aging, leukocyte telomere length. METHODS: Asthma was ascertained prospectively in the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study cohort (n = 1,037) at nine in-person assessments spanning ages 9-38 years. Leukocyte telomere length was measured at ages 26 and 38 years. Asthma was classified as life-course-persistent, childhood-onset not meeting criteria for persistence, and adolescent/adult-onset. We tested associations between asthma and leukocyte telomere length using regression models. We tested for confounding of asthma-leukocyte telomere length associations using covariate adjustment. We tested serum C-reactive protein and white blood cell counts as potential mediators of asthma-leukocyte telomere length associations. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Study members with life-course-persistent asthma had shorter leukocyte telomere length as compared with sex- and age-matched peers with no reported asthma. In contrast, leukocyte telomere length in study members with childhood-onset and adolescent/adult-onset asthma was not different from leukocyte telomere length in peers with no reported asthma. Adjustment for life histories of obesity and smoking did not change results. Study members with life-course-persistent asthma had elevated blood eosinophil counts. Blood eosinophil count mediated 29% of the life-course-persistent asthma-leukocyte telomere length association. CONCLUSIONS: Life-course-persistent asthma is related to a proposed biomarker of accelerated aging, possibly via systemic eosinophilic inflammation. Life histories of asthma can inform studies of aging.

The Frequency and Impact of Exposure to Potentially Traumatic Events Over the Life Course.

We examined the frequency and impact of exposure to potentially traumatic events among a nonclinical sample of older adults (n = 3,575), a population typically underrepresented in epidemiological research concerning the prevalence of traumatic events. Current PTSD symptom severity and the centrality of events to identity were assessed for events nominated as currently most distressing. Approximately 90% of participants experienced one or more potentially traumatic events. Events that occurred with greater frequency early in the life course were associated with more severe PTSD symptoms compared to events that occurred with greater frequency during later decades. Early life traumas, however, were not more central to identity. Results underscore the differential impact of traumatic events experienced throughout the life course. We conclude with suggestions for further research concerning mechanisms that promote the persistence of post-traumatic stress related to early life traumas and empirical evaluation of psychotherapeutic treatments for older adults with PTSD.

The impact of host immune status on the within-host and population dynamics of antigenic immune escape.

Antigenically evolving pathogens such as influenza viruses are difficult to control owing to their ability to evade host immunity by producing immune escape variants. Experimental studies have repeatedly demonstrated that viral immune escape variants emerge more often from immunized hosts than from naive hosts. This empirical relationship between host immune status and within-host immune escape is not fully understood theoretically, nor has its impact on antigenic evolution at the population level been evaluated. Here, we show that this relationship can be understood as a trade-off between the probability that a new antigenic variant is produced and the level of viraemia it reaches within a host. Scaling up this intra-host level trade-off to a simple population level model, we obtain a distribution for variant persistence times that is consistent with influenza A/H3N2 antigenic variant data. At the within-host level, our results show that target cell limitation, or a functional equivalent, provides a parsimonious explanation for how host immune status drives the generation of immune escape mutants. At the population level, our analysis also offers an alternative explanation for the observed tempo of antigenic evolution, namely that the production rate of immune escape variants is driven by the accumulation of herd immunity. Overall, our results suggest that disease control strategies should be further assessed by considering the impact that increased immunity--through vaccination--has on the production of new antigenic variants.